India emerged reasonably well from 2025. But now, the oil shock and war-related supply disruptions have again driven funds out of India and significantly weakened the rupee, points out Ajay Chhibber.
India's manufacturing sector activity witnessed a slight recovery in January, amid faster increase in new orders, even as business confidence slipped to its lowest level in three-and-a-half years, a monthly survey said on Monday.
India's services sector experienced a slight moderation in growth during February, according to the HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index, with new order growth slowing and inflation picking up.
The deal shifts the US posture towards India from hostile to neutral, and that matters for growth, points out T T Ram Mohan.
India's high cost of capital due to relatively shallow corporate bond markets, limited institutional investor depth, sovereign risk premia, and regulatory restrictions on capital flows, is a constraint on private investment and long-run growth, the Economic Survey, authored by Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran, said.
In a world fractured by uncertainty, India stands out for its policy consistency, paired with sustained ambition, points out Pritam Banerjee.
India has managed high government debt-to-GDP, a slowing domestic revenue engine, lower household savings and a more hostile geopolitical environment separately in the past. But together, they threaten to undo the growth narrative on which today's optimism rests, warns Debashis Basu.
If the conflict continues for a prolonged period, State-run oil companies may have to review retail fuel prices accordingly.
India's computer services exports have risen 30 per cent since the advent of ChatGPT in November 2022, even as overall services exports have plateaued, World Bank's South Asia Chief Economist Franziska Ohnsorge said, terming Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the conclusion of more trade agreements that can trigger a "manufacturing renaissance", as the two big investment opportunities for India in coming years.
The ratio of market capitalisation to gross domestic product (GDP) in India remains elevated despite the recent correction in the equities markets. It was 147.5 per cent on December 3, 56 per cent higher than the 10-year average of 94 per cent. The current ratio is slightly lower than the all-time high ratio of 154 per cent at the end of September this year.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday cut India's GDP growth projections to 6.5 per cent for the next fiscal as it expects that economies in the APAC region will feel the strain of rising US tariffs and pushback on globalisation. In its Economic Outlook for Asia-Pacific (APAC), S&P said despite these external strains, it expects domestic demand momentum to remain solid in most emerging-market economies.
I am inclined to believe that the Venezuela adventure is not an indication of American strength, alas, but rather of American weakness, points out Rajeev Srinivasan.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday proposed a G20 initiative aimed at enhancing clean energy transitions by boosting recycling, easing supply chain pressures and advancing joint research on critical minerals, and suggested forging a partnership to make satellite data more accessible and interoperable.
'Returning Indians can leverage their international skills and the strong funding environment for start-ups here.'
'What India has done will surely embolden more countries to stand up to Trump.'
In an event-heavy week, stock investors will track quarterly earnings of several bluechip firms, the likely outcome of ongoing India-US trade talks, and inflation data for market cues, analysts said on Sunday. Moreover, global market trends and trading activity of foreign investors would also guide movement in equities, they said.
The Indian services sector growth touched an 11 month high in July, supported by a pickup in new exports orders and sharp rise in overall sales, a monthly survey said on Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index was at 60.5 in July, little-changed from 60.4 in June, and the rate of expansion was the best seen since August 2024.
'In today's world, it is difficult for public pressure to work against a country like India.'
'Investors who remain calm, consistent, and disciplined through short-term volatility are usually the ones who benefit most in the long run.'
The Indian economy is projected to grow at 6.2 per cent in 2025-26, slower than earlier estimated rate of 6.5 per cent, due to escalated trade tensions and global uncertainty, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday. "For India, the growth outlook is relatively more stable at 6.2 per cent in 2025, supported by private consumption, particularly in rural areas," IMF said in its World Economic Outlook (WEO).
India needs another shot of difficult reform, of the kind only possible at gunpoint. Mr Trump holds that gun to our heads now. A drastic reduction in tariff protection, other elements of sarkari wet-nursing will force entrepreneurial India to become competitive again, argues Shekhar Gupta.
We have entered a new era in human history, asserts Aakar Patel.
I'...additional concessions, such as opening government procurement, reducing agricultural subsidies, weakening patent protections, and allowing unrestricted data flows -- demands India has resisted for decades.'
The Budget should undertake further reductions in import tariffs and seriously consider an announcement of India's intention to join one or both of the two Asian mega-regional free trade agreements, suggests Shankar Acharya, former chief economic adviser to the Government of India.
The exodus of FPIs from the Indian equity markets continued unabated, as they withdrew over Rs 7,300 crore (about $840 million) in the first week of this month due to global trade tensions, with the US imposing tariffs on countries such as Canada, Mexico, and China. This came following an outflow of Rs 78,027 crore in the entire January. Before that, they invested Rs 15,446 crore in December, data with the depositories showed.
The sweeping tariffs proposed across sectors by US President Donald Trump are scheduled to be imposed starting April 2, with most analysts worried about their impact on companies, and in turn the financial markets. Recently, the US administration signaled that it will impose sectoral tariffs on energy, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, agriculture, copper, and lumber.
BSE-listed companies' market capitalisation reached Rs 197.7 trillion on January 21, against India's nominal GDP of Rs 190 trillion during 12 months ended December 2020.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in nearly five years in Governor Sanjay Malhotra's first monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting on Wednesday. The meeting of the six-member MPC, which will culminate on Friday, aims to boost sluggish economic growth, which is seen falling to a four-year low. Malhotra took charge as the 26th RBI governor in December last year.
'Our attempt to honour the taxpayer has been since 2014 and more actively since 2019-2020 onwards.'
The services sector growth in India rose to a three-month high in December supported by favourable economic conditions and positive demand trends, a monthly survey said on Friday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from 56.9 in November to 59 in December, highlighting a sharp increase in output that was the most pronounced since September. In Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
'Consider 40% to 50% in equities, 10% in gold as a hedge, and the remaining 30% to 40% split between multi-asset funds and hybrid funds.'
'The Indian economy is expected to grow in terms of per capita income and GDP, and with that, the luxury segment becomes more relevant.'
In the volatile international situation where 'nativism' is on the rise and immigrant communities are being targeted, the Leader of the Opposition's statement is like adding fuel to fire. If the Indian diaspora numbering 4 crores is threatened it will constitute a grave threat to national security, warns Colonel Anil A Athale (retd).
Perhaps the finance ministry or NITI Aayog could take a detailed look at what governments actually deliver and at what cost; how their services can be improved and expanded where necessary; how much money can be saved through doing things differently; and how many things the government does which it can safely leave to the private sector, argues T N Ninan.
President Xi is also skipping the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) and East Asia summits in Jakarta this week.
'Healthcare is not an industry.' 'The government is only encouraging insurance as they are not able to provide healthcare to people.' 'Opening new medical colleges is not what is needed.' 'You have to invest in public sector hospitals.' 'You cannot hand over healthcare to the private industry.'
Moody's Investors Service on Wednesday raised India's economic growth estimate for 2023 to 5.5 per cent from 4.8 per cent pegged earlier, on the back of a sharp increase in capital expenditure in the Budget and a resilient economic momentum. It however revised downwards India's growth estimate for 2022 to 6.8 per cent from 7 per cent pegged in November last year. In its February update to Global Macro Outlook 2023-24, Moody's raised the baseline 2023 real growth projections "meaningfully" for several G20 economies, including the US, Canada, the Euro area, India, Russia, Mexico, and Turkiye, accounting for a stronger end to 2022.
The first summit in South Asia, it will host the largest delegation of 43 heads of State and government as well as the heads of international organisations.
India's position in Human Development Index was 136 out of 187 countries in 2012. It ranked 134 in 2011.
Without mentioning the boundary dispute, the spokesperson said that China-India relations have been stable on the whole and "our two sides have maintained dialogue and communication at various levels".
